%0 Journal Article
%T Sensitivity Analysis in a Multi-Carrier Energy Hub System through Electrical and Thermal Profile Procurement
%J Renewable Energy Research and Applications
%I Shahrood University of Technology
%Z 2717-252X
%A Mahmoudian, M.
%A Sadi, S.
%A Gholami, J.
%A Karimi, Alirza
%D 2022
%\ 07/01/2022
%V 3
%N 2
%P 217-228
%! Sensitivity Analysis in a Multi-Carrier Energy Hub System through Electrical and Thermal Profile Procurement
%K Energy Hub
%K Electricity Market
%K Conditional Value at Risk
%K Optimization
%K Sensitivity Analysis
%R 10.22044/rera.2022.11508.1095
%X This paper is dealt with energy hub systems in order to evaluate the sensitivity analysis of output power carriers in terms of input electricity and natural gas. Unlike the recent works which were solitary concentrated at operational cost minimization, in this research not only the energy carriers of proposed hub are being modeled, but also the sensitivity analysis of each power supplier are investigated. Since some of input power carriers in the hub, are decreased slightly or immediately according to unsolicited situations, the output electrical or thermal profile may not be supplied completely. Therefore the network operator must make a proper decision to utilize the best carriers not to reduce the system efficiency if possible. In this regard, the objective function including the energy costs for electrical, thermal and cooling demand carriers is optimized and the best solution will be extracted based on conditional value at risk (CAVR) of electricity market actors, using GAMS/CPLEX software, results in the higher the risk the network operator takes, the higher the profit from futures contracts. In the next step, the electricity price is predicted using ARIMA approach for the next four weeks and the sensitivity analysis for the future of the energy hub will be examined. The simulation results and changes in the share of energy carriers show that the importance of passive defense must be considered in the planning for energy supply of office buildings and the percentage of unsupplied energy must be studied.
%U https://rera.shahroodut.ac.ir/article_2334_2d6a9390bd6baa13097f32d04504f259.pdf