A cost-benefit analysis of options for the retrofit of Kiri dam to generate hydroelectric energy

Yuguda, Taitiya Kenneth; Fakayode, Olugbenga Abiola; Mankilik, Isaac Mashingil

doi:10.22044/rera.2026.17749.1545

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Admiralty University of Nigeria

² Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta. Canada.

³ Department of Industrial Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Admiralty University of Nigeria, Delta State, Nigeria.

10.22044/rera.2026.17749.1545

Abstract

A largely overlooked approach to expanding electricity access in rural regions while minimizing environmental harm involves retrofitting existing dams. Although upgrading these structures presents a promising alternative for power generation with reduced ecological consequences, the economic viability of various financing models for such hydropower retrofits remains poorly understood. This study addresses that gap by modifying the Hydropower Environmental Costs Analysis Model (HECAM) to evaluate the long-term economic feasibility of dam retrofits, considering the interplay between environmental, economic, and social factors. A cost-benefit analysis of upgrading Kiri Dam for hydroelectric power generation evaluated three potential financing and ownership models: a 20 MW public-private partnership (PPP) over 20 years, a 30 MW PPP over 20 years, and a 30 MW PPP over 30 years. Among these, the 30 MW 20-year PPP option yielded the highest annual revenue from electricity sales when compared to the 20 MW 20-year and 30 MW 30-year alternatives. However, the 30 MW 30-year PPP model generated greater total annual revenue from additional reservoir services than the other two options. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, at this early phase of project development, it makes sense to explore multiple equity tranches with different payment structures. The results highlight that factors like contract duration, water flow, capacity factor, capital expenses, debt term, interest rates, and other variables should all be weighed when evaluating the costs and benefits of retrofitting existing dams. Given that hydropower projects can have long operational lifespans under favorable conditions, project developers and equity investors should prioritize longer-term contracts.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Tide, Wave and Hydro Power

References

[1] S. Tajziehchi, A. Karbassi, G. Nabi, C. Yoo, P. Ifaei, A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Bakhtiari Hydropower Dam Considering the Nexus between Energy and Water, Energies 15 (2022) 871. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15030871.

[2] V. Eslami, P.-S. Ashofteh, P. Golfam, H.A. Loáiciga, Multi-criteria Decision-making Approach for Environmental Impact Assessment to Reduce the Adverse Effects Of Dams, Water Resour. Manag. 35 (2021) 4085–4110. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02932-1.

[3] Y.M. Khir Alla, L. Liu, Impacts of Dams on the Environment: A Review, Int. J. Environ. Agric. Biotechnol. 6 (2021) 064–074. https://doi.org/10.22161/ijeab.61.9.

[4] P. Sospiro, L. Nibbi, M.C. Liscio, M. De Lucia, Cost–Benefit Analysis of Pumped Hydroelectricity Storage Investment in China, Energies 14 (2021) 8322. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14248322.

[5] K. Nhiakao, H. Yabar, T. Mizunoya, Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Nam Che 1 Hydropower Plant, Thathom District, Laos: An Ex-Post Analysis, Sustainability 14 (2022) 3178. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063178.

[6] M. Esmaeilpourmoghadam, H. Khozeymehnezhad, N. Niknia, M. Dastourani, Evaluation of Benefit-Cost Analysis of South Khorasan Artificial Recharge Dams Based on Water Demand Scenarios, Water Harvest. Res. 5 (2022) 191–200. https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2023.6200.1080.

[7] B. Liu, K. Yao, F. Wang, X. Chi, Y. Gong, Benefit Sharing in Hydropower Development: A Model Using Game Theory and Cost–Benefit Analysis, Water 14 (2022) 1208. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14081208.

[8] M.N. Nobi, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Kaptai Dam in Rangamati District, Chittagong, Bangladesh, (2022). https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2109.05419.

[9] A. Hatamkhani, A. Moridi, A.T. Haghighi, Incorporating ecosystem services value into the optimal development of hydropower projects, Renew. Energy 203 (2023) 495–505. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.12.078.

[10] P. Zeng, W. Fang, H. Zhang, Z. Liang, Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project Considering the Effects of Flood Risk Reduction and Resettlement, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 14 (2023) 795–812. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-023-00520-y.

[11] V. Arango-Gil, J.C. Villegas, Evaluating climate mitigation cost of power generation in Colombia: A novel approach to cost-benefit analysis when contemplating adoption of renewable energy technologies (REs), Energy Environ. (2025) 0958305X251349485. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X251349485.

[12] F.A.M. de Faria, A. Davis, E. Severnini, P. Jaramillo, The local socio-economic impacts of large hydropower plant development in a developing country, Energy Econ. 67 (2017) 533–550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.08.025.

[13] T.K. Yuguda, Environmental Impact Assessment (Eia) Of The Proposed Kiri Hydro-Electric Power Project, (2015). https://kubanni.abu.edu.ng/handle/123456789/8257 (accessed January 8, 2026).

[14] A. Ahmad, Large Dams Establishment Impacts on Different Environmental Aspects: A Review, AUIQ Tech. Eng. Sci. 1 (2024). https://doi.org/10.70645/3078-3437.1010.

[15] M. Attia, M. Nasr, Impacts of Upper Nile Mega Dams on Agricultural Environment in Downstream Country, in: A.V. Semenov, I.S. Zonn, A.G. Kostianoy, S.S. Zhiltsov, A. Negm (Eds.), Environ. Consequences Int. Confl. MENA Reg., Springer Nature Switzerland, Cham, 2024: pp. 209–238. https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2024_1088.

[16] S.R.H. Bukhari, Hydro-Imperialism: China’s Water Dominance and the Transformation of Global Geopolitical Power, Ann. Hum. Soc. Sci. 5 (2024) 411–425. https://doi.org/10.35484/ahss.2024(5-III)37.

[17] C. Middleton, The Political Ecology of Large Hydropower Dams in the Mekong Basin: A Comprehensive Review., Water Altern. 15 (2022). https://www.wateralternatives.org/index.php?option=com_acymailing&ctrl=url&subid=191&urlid=1325&mailid=117 (accessed January 9, 2026).

[18] T.K. Yuguda, Y. Li, W. Xiong, W. Zhang, Life cycle assessment of options for retrofitting an existing dam to generate hydro-electricity, Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 25 (2020) 57–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-019-01671-1.

[19] P.H. Brown, D. Magee, Y. Xu, Socioeconomic vulnerability in China’s hydropower development, China Econ. Rev. 19 (2008) 614–627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2008.06.002.

[20] T. Ptak, Towards an ethnography of small hydropower in China: Rural electrification, socioeconomic development and furtive hydroscapes, Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 48 (2019) 116–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.09.010.

[21] B.K. Sovacool, G. Walter, Major hydropower states, sustainable development, and energy security: Insights from a preliminary cross-comparative assessment, Energy 142 (2018) 1074–1082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.085.

[22] Q.A. Okang, T.H. Bakken, A. Bor, Investigation of the Hydroelectric Development Potential of Nonpowered Dams: A Case Study of the Buyuk Menderes River Basin, Water 15 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3390/w15040717.

[23] S. van Vuuren, C.L. Blersch, M. van Dijk, Modelling the feasibility of retrofitting hydropower to existing South African dams, Water SA 37 (2011)679–692. https://doi.org/10.4314/wsa.v37i5.5.

[24] M. van Dijk, D. Gezer, P. Rudolf, Unlocking Hydropower’s Potential: Retrofitting Infrastructure and Harnessing Unconventional Sources for Clean Energy Transitions, IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 1502 (2025) 012006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1502/1/012006.

[25] C. Hansen, M. Musa, C. Sasthav, S. DeNeale, Hydropower development potential at non-powered dams: Data needs and research gaps, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 145 (2021) 111058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111058.

[26] O.D. Jimoh, Regional flood frequency of Gongola basin (Nigeria) based on L-moment Technique, (2006). http://irepo.futminna.edu.ng:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/18892 (accessed March 17, 2026).

[27] D.N. Olayinka-Dosunmu, A.E. Adzandeh, I.A. Hamid-Mosaku, C.J. Okolie, P.C. Nwilo, C.O. Ogbeta, Assessing River Benue flow data for flood mitigation and management in Adamawa catchment, Nigeria, Sci. Afr. 16 (2022) e01205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01205.

[28] T.K. Yuguda, Y. Li, W. Zhang, Q. Ye, Incorporating water loss from water storage and conveyance into blue water footprint of irrigated sugarcane: A case study of Savannah Sugar Irrigation District, Nigeria, Sci. Total Environ. 715 (2020) 136886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136886.

[29] J.A. Dixon, An Expanded Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the Reventazón Hydroelectric Project (PHR), in Costa Rica, IDB Publ. (2013). https://doi.org/10.18235/0009129.

[30] T.K. Yuguda, S.A. Imanche, T. Ze, T.Y. Akintunde, B.S. Luka, Hydropower development, policy and partnership in the 21st century: A China-Nigeria outlook, Energy Environ. 34 (2023) 1170–1204. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X221079423.

[31] C.N. Ezugwu, Sediment deposition in Nigeria reservoirs: impacts and control measures, Innov. Syst. Des. Eng. 4 (2023) 54–62.

[32] N.P. Ololube, Public-Private Partnership Dynamics for the Economic Development of Nigeria, in: Public Priv. Partnersh. Dyn. Econ. Dev., IGI Global Scientific Publishing, 2025: pp. 105–130. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-9153-2.ch006.

[33] J.P.C. Kleijnen, Sensitivity analysis and related analyses: A review of some statistical techniques, J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 57 (1997) 111–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/00949659708811805.

[34] S. Razavi, A. Jakeman, A. Saltelli, C. Prieur, B. Iooss, E. Borgonovo, E. Plischke, S. Lo Piano, T. Iwanaga, W. Becker, S. Tarantola, J.H.A. Guillaume, J. Jakeman, H. Gupta, N. Melillo, G. Rabitti, V. Chabridon, Q. Duan, X. Sun, S. Smith, R. Sheikholeslami, N. Hosseini, M. Asadzadeh, A. Puy, S. Kucherenko, H.R. Maier, The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support, Environ. Model. Softw. 137 (2021) 104954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104954.

[35] S. Razavi, H.V. Gupta, What do we mean by sensitivity analysis? The need for comprehensive characterization of “global” sensitivity in Earth and Environmental systems models, Water Resour. Res. 51 (2015) 3070–3092. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016527.

Renewable Energy Research and Applications

A cost-benefit analysis of options for the retrofit of Kiri dam to generate hydroelectric energy

References

References

Volume 7, Issue 2
July 2026
Pages 259-271

A cost-benefit analysis of options for the retrofit of Kiri dam to generate hydroelectric energy

References

References

Volume 7, Issue 2July 2026Pages 259-271

Volume 7, Issue 2
July 2026
Pages 259-271